Web Watch
Figures converted from KRW at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
Web Watch in One Page
The next 90 days are the densest event window SKC has had in three years, and the report's verdict turns on five observable signals — each resolves on a public source the moment it lands. The five live monitors below cover: the $680M rights offering closing 8 June 2026 (the highest-impact near-term event), the 2Q 2026 earnings print on or around 5 August (the test of whether the 1Q26 EBITDA inflection was structural or a Q4-big-bath artifact), Absolics' progress toward a named hyperscaler customer (the only catalyst that would re-rate the $401M of dilution proceeds from sunk cost to optioned upside), ISC's standalone trajectory on KOSDAQ where 40% of SKC's market cap is marked daily, and the Solus copper-foil patent dispute — a live overhang on SK nexilis value not in sell-side models. Nothing else in the report's "what would change the view" set carries the same combination of resolution speed and price-impact magnitude.
Active Monitors
| Rank | Watch item | Cadence | Why it matters | What would be detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $680M rights offering — pricing, subscription, listing | 6h | Mechanical ~22% dilution lands 8 June and is the dominant variable for the next 30 days; SK Inc. 120% over-allocation and ESOP 132% oversubscription must convert into actual take-up to clear the overhang | Final issue price set in mid-May; 14–15 May existing-shareholder subscription rates; general-public tranche absorption; SK Inc.'s realised over-allocation; new-share listing-day price action on 8 June; post-listing tape over the four weeks after |
| 2 | 2Q 2026 earnings print (~5 August) | 1d | First clean comp post-4Q25 $215M impairment base; a second consecutive positive consolidated EBITDA confirms 1Q26 was structural; reversion forces a re-anchor to the ~$72 consensus target | Earnings release timing and content; consolidated EBITDA sign and magnitude; ISC operating-margin retention at 30%+; chemicals OP staying positive after the Mid-East PG-spread tailwind; SK nexilis Malaysia plant standalone EBITDA continuity; cash trajectory after the rights inflow |
| 3 | Absolics — named hyperscaler qualification window | 1d | $401M of the rights-offering proceeds is being routed to Absolics; only a named NVIDIA / AMD / Google / Broadcom / Samsung qualification re-rates the glass-substrate option from binary $0–135M to a discrete $400M–$680M+; mass production has already slipped from 2024 to year-end 2026 | Any named Tier-1 customer announcement; first commercial revenue line in the "New business" segment; further mass-production slippage past year-end 2026; Samsung Electro-Mechanics 2027 ramp updates that close the first-mover window; CHIPS Act funding milestones at the Covington, Georgia plant |
| 4 | ISC standalone (KOSDAQ:095340) and HBM/AI capex | 1d | SKC's 45.03% ISC stake marks at ~$1.65B against SKC's ~$4.11B cap — ~40% of the SOTP. ISC trades at 95× trailing P/E on AI/HBM design-in lock; an AI capex pause or HBM share rotation to Micron compresses ISC and SKC simultaneously | ISC quarterly earnings, especially HBM/large-area socket mix and operating-margin trajectory; AI-accelerator capex revisions at SK hynix, Samsung, NVIDIA; HBM share-shift disclosures involving Micron; Vietnam Plant 2 capex announcements; ISC standalone share-price moves of more than 15% |
| 5 | Solus copper-foil patent and trade-secret disputes | 1w | Live overhang on SK nexilis segment value not in standard sell-side models; the February 2026 Korean IPTAB ruling tilted against SK Nexilis on one Solus copper-foil patent; an adverse outcome could broaden injunction risk on premium 4µm foil | New Korean IPTAB rulings on Solus or SK Nexilis filings; US PTAB rehearings; docket activity in E.D. Texas trade-secret case 2:23-cv-00539; settlement, injunction, or damages developments; SK Nexilis press releases on dispute posture |
Why These Five
The report's verdict — Watchlist, with the bull case requiring confirmation that has not yet been delivered — names exactly three resolving events for the live debate: the 8 June listing-day tape, the 2Q 2026 EBITDA print, and any named Absolics hyperscaler qualification in 2H26. Monitors 1, 2, and 3 cover those three directly. Monitor 4 watches ISC's standalone KOSDAQ mark, which the variant-perception section identifies as the single largest swing factor in the SOTP — larger than any quarterly consolidated EBITDA print on the parent. Monitor 5 covers the Solus copper-foil litigation that the bear case explicitly flags as a live overhang on copper-foil segment value not modelled by sell-side. Items the report mentioned but did not warrant a dedicated monitor — sell-side revision wave, FY26 cathode/silicon-anode strategic-retreat updates, PBAT Vietnam Plant 2 — are subordinate to or downstream of these five and would be picked up as collateral by the rights-offering and earnings monitors.